Nature (DRAFT)

Part of a series: Data-induced Uncertainties.

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Natural, societal and economic processes are most often stochastic. An important aspect is natural heterogeneity within and between system components. Thus, natural uncertainty or natural variability is an inherent property of the underlying system and is the result of both spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the system. It is not possible to decrease natural variability by making more measurements with finer resolutions or by using better equipment, however better quality and quantity of measurements can only allow better understanding of it. Any numerical or statistical model which represents a real world system(s) or process(es) undergoes natural variability. In climate/weather prediction many phenomenon such as ENSO, sudden stratospheric warming and etc. can not be modelled or predicted using mathematical models. Another example could be the impact of weather on production of renewable energy where the exact production cannot be estimated in advance based on weather data.

Contributors

Jordan Gault, Sonja Gemscheid